The Great Displacement Is Already Well Underway
It's Not a Hypothetical, I've Already Lost My Job to AI For The Last Year
As I climb into my little twin sized bed in my small RV trailer on a patch of undeveloped deep rural land in the Central New York highlands, exhausted from my 6 hours of doordash driving to make less than 200$ that day, I check my emails one last time for the night: no responses from the 745th through 756th job applications that i put in over the last week for engineering roles i’m qualified or over-qualified for. I’m not that surprised or disappointed at this point, as I close in on the 800 application mark in over the last year of being an unemployed software engineer.
It’s a little weird living in a small trailer when I’m a homeowner, in fact I own three houses: A fixer-upper starter home in a rust belt upstate New York university city, and a patch of beautiful remote rural land with 2 pretty humble and simple cabins on it an hour from the city house. It was an altogether pretty manageable feat to pay for these properties for a working professional, considering the cost per month of all these properties combined is less than say, a decent modest 1 or 2 bedroom apartment rent in California’s bay area.
In the beginning, I paid basically nothing for the properties. A roommate’s monthly rent at the city house covered that house’s mortgage, and a renter of one of the cabins covered most of the rural property’s mortgage, with my disabled single mother’s meager amount of government assistance just about covering the rest.
I left behind everything and everyone i know and love on the west coast to come to New York specifically for this opportunity of helping care for my family and growing long term equity with real estate. No such opportunity exists on the west coast, and hasn’t for more than 15 years.
With my full time engineering job bringing in around $150k, a salary that I clawed my way slowly and steadily for 20 years, I could just about manage covering all the expenses, maintenance, and planned improvements for the long-term vision of the properties, maintain my 16-year-old daily driver car, and maybe even have four or five thousand dollars left over each year to take one little camping trip and make a couple stock and crypto investments. It was a simple life, but a decent one, and one I worked hard for more than 20 years to reach. 20 years of continuous professional grinding and long-term planning and thinking.
I’m now in the trailer because something has shifted in society in the last 2.5 years. Something that caused myself and a large portion of the talented dev teams at my last company let go at a time when our company and parent corp were doing great. Something that I’ve known was coming since beginning my study of the topic since around 2005. Something that makes getting my resume even seen to begin with a sisyphusian task. Something that has warped an already broken technical interview process into a PTSD-inducing minefield. Something that now, still only in its infancy, is already touching basically every aspect of almost all of our lives (whether you realize it or not): AI.
In this last year I interviewed with about 10 companies, getting as far as a 4th round interview twice and several second and third rounds, but not getting any offers. It has amounted to dozens of unpaid hours of my time on these interviews and the preparation for them, with nothing to show for it. I try not to think about the other hundreds (thousands?) of hours of my time in the last year trolling the depths of 5 or 6 different job listing sites, the YC message board, local listings (depressing), and manually messaging EACH of my 250 linkedin contacts asking if they had any leads.
Landing an interview feels like a miracle. I suspect my resume is filtered out of consideration by some half-baked AI `candidate finder service` because my resume doesn’t mention enough hyper-specific bleeding-edge AI terms. If I make it past the screener bots, i’m up against the other 1,000 applicants (bots, foreign nationals, and other displaced-by-AI tech workers) who have applied within the first 2 hours of a job posting going live.
When i make it past all of them and land an interview, I face a series of final bosses: Generally, it’s the fresh-faced bay area 25 year old with a Steve Jobs complex dismissing me when they find out my dinosaur age of 42, or the moment they hear the words “php” uttered when they learn I was developing advanced php web apps when they were in diapers. As if that has any negative relevance towards the modern technologies i’ve gone on to learn and be experienced with in more recent years. It’s likely I'm more educated than the ones interviewing me on precisely the AI skills needed for the role, and I'm dismissed.
the day the great displacement began in earnest. 2022
“upskill and learn the latest AI stuff to stay relevant”
so the common wisdom goes. I have spent 2 to 5 hours per day in the last year consuming AI news, papers, and podcasts, and constantly thinking and reflecting on the latest AI trends. I have a pretty good idea exactly what the fuck is going on. I have built about 10 small 100% AI-generated codebases in the last year as personal learning exercises, and any time there is free access to any new AI tool, i go out of my way to try it out. I am in Cursor almost every day.
“try writing on substack, building in public, do youtube!”
I began doing exactly this within the first week I was let go from my last job. At some point putting out multiple AI engineering vlogs on youtube every week consistently, building and discussing in public. Videos which I would upload patiently from the supermarket seating area, having canceled my home internet service the week I was fired in a bid to save every dollar possible in order to not lose my house and everything I've built.
I got a handful of kind and positive comments and 150 new subscribers, but no job leads. The hard reality is that time I spent on substack and youtube content was time not spent on getting a paying job unfortunately. I have gone back and deleted 95% of those articles and vlogs, because although many of the ideas they presented were very forward-thinking and insightful at the time, they may now be viewed as pedestrian to AI insiders merely months later due to the pace of AI progress. I don’t want the wrong person with a job lead to see a take like that as their first exposure to me and think that I'm behind the last 24 hours of advancements on my AI takes.
“maybe lower your standards a little on the job, take a step back to get back on your feet in order to take a step forward”
Before AI was on the scene 3 years ago, I was already beginning a transition from individual contributor to engineering manager. I tried to greet my layoff at first with great positivity and enthusiasm for the opportunity it provided to step up to EM role. The first month or two of my search i only targeted EM roles or higher-end IC positions. With no prior specific EM role on the resume, though qualified, I was met with an absolute brick wall. Not the slightest of interest in me. Begrudgingly, I lowered my bar a little and went back to applying for roles matching the exact same level of what I already have proven experience doing, but at slightly higher pay than I had before. I got one or two interviews which felt like bullying and condescending, but mostly nothing.
‘Ok, I can swallow my pride,’ I thought. After a few months of that, I started applying for roles at my same existing level, but at lower pay than my last role. same results.
After 6 months of this, I would apply for anything and everything I was capable of. Wordpress theme developer, a job I could have done in 2008, offering less than half of the salary I’m worth. I applied anyway. nothing.
I even hit rock bottom: opening myself up to the thought of on-site dev work, which is an absolute red line for me. I applied to a on-site developer role at my local university that I was vastly over qualified for, offering a salary less than i made in 2009, a role they have had listed for months, and got a “no thanks.” The only other local regional roles I am readily finding are CDL trucking, amazon warehouse, or cashier at Dollar General for 18$ an hour. Is this my reality?
Desperate, I even researched Engineering Manager certificate programs from accredited universities. Maybe that would give me just enough boost on the resume to actually land an interview for one of the roles. These programs primarily consist of watching youtube playlists and cost $3k-$8k with no guarantee of a job afterwards. I don’t have $3k-$8k so that ended there.
“Maybe it’s time to consider a career pivot?”
As hard as it is to swallow that my computer science degree and 21 years of relevant experience has become economically worthless overnight, I was willing to accept this and pivot into a job that would be AI-proof for at least a few years longer. Crane or equipment operator. Drone surveyor pilot. CDL driving. All of these I looked into, all require $7k-$15k up front training and certificate investment, with jobs starting around 25$ an hour afterwards. I don’t have $7-$15k, and $25 an hour is not enough to make ends meet. I am now trying to start a pressure washing business that I am a few thousand dollars deep on credit investing into starting up, because my research indicates I’ll be able to beat an Amazon warehouse or Dollar General salary while making my own hours with no boss.
doordashing in Syracuse, New York
“explore alternative ways of making money!”
I partially rent out my city house to a long-term tenant, it does not profit and it just about covers the operating expenses of the house. I was undertaking the renovations which would make the full house rentable and result in a monthly small profit, but I ran out of money for the renovations so I had to settle for renting half of the house only. If i was bestowed some gift of capital, I could complete the renovations and make the house income-producing.
I rent one of my cabins on Airbnb, and have only ever received 5 star reviews. people love it here, but our location is so remote and winters so harsh that only during the peak one or two months of the year does it clear the income amount it would make renting to a long-term tenant.
I love the flexibility and privacy of running the cabin as an Airbnb, I love that i get to share the abundance of this country land to create memorable great experiences for my guests, but with the addition of a 4% occupancy tax my county just rolled out, I am realistically barely clearing operating costs and I will have to switch it to a long-term rental next year, assuming I can find a tenant.
I feverishly list random crap i have laying around on ebay which has contributed a small amount of help. a 300$ old laptop here, a 20$ piece of old designer clothing there.
I’ve even researched into starting a farm stand which I’m allowed to do here in my designated agricultural region, selling arts and crafts, garden produce, and firewood, but I don’t have the startup capital required to build the stand, get the firewood equipment, grow the garden…
I turned to service apps this winter: doordash, instacart, uber eats. Their signup systems were incompatible with my full, legal, one-letter last name, and it took about 50 hours on the phone with doordash support in Malaysia and the background check provider in India to eventually get cleared to drive them. I was not able to get through on the other apps.
I now run doordash driving any night I feel able to or don’t have a more viable money-producing activity i can do with the time. Most nights it does better on an hourly basis than being a cashier at Dollar General and without a boss or fixed schedule, but sometimes I operate on a loss.
POV: making $6.50 running your buffalo wings to the Holiday Inn
“well, there’s always unemployment”
I immediately pursued unemployment when I was laid off. It will require a separate article to detail how the New York State unemployment system was one of the most ineffective, counterproductive, unhelpful, wasteful, hopelessly bureaucratic toxic messes i’ve ever endured, but they assisted me with <$2000 a month for 6 months, an amount that does not cover my baseline. when they learned about the Airbnb (which i told them about at length during the entrance interview), they sent a legal threat letter threatening that i would have to repay months of the assistance due to operating a business. If that threat was enforced, it would have financially destroyed me, and I would probably be in foreclosure. I appealed my way out of it. after 6 months I received an email that “your unemployment assistance has ended.” No follow-up. No further recommended resources. No community suggestions. not even a “good luck.”
It did help pull through this last year, but I somewhat regret ever getting involved with the state at all and the severe stress it caused when they threatened baseless legal action and got all the way into my business.
doordashing in Utica, New York
“just cut your losses and couch surf with friends and family til you get back on your feet. ”
I come from poverty. my father was a drug addict who is dead. my mother is disabled and i’m helping support her. my grandparents are dead. my friends are on the west coast, dealing with similar financial hardships and they are already living with their parents and on couches. I’m not above asking for help, but there is no one to ask.
initially upon being unemployed, i put around-the-clock effort into renovating my city house to rent at full market value, but I ran out of money for renovations
“No sympathy for you bro, complaining when you own multiple houses. just sell your houses and get a studio apartment or move into your car for a while.”
It’s not that easy.
My disabled mom has nowhere else to go. Social security and housing assistance programs move extremely slowly, and in some cases she needs to file applications for things up to 2 years in advance to get on waiting lists or approved for housing changes. the best situation is for her to stay at our property where I can help out. My other property would be sold effectively at a loss, because it hasn’t yet been renovated to it’s full market value. Since i wouldn’t be eligible for another mortgage with no income or job, I wouldn’t be able to play the rich man’s game of using a 1031 exchange on the sale, meaning I would also be taxed up to 20% in capital gains tax on the sale of the house, effectively losing money in the deal. One day, when I can afford completing the renovations and equity has built up over the years, I will be able to sell it at a profit and roll the profit into an upgraded property to avoid taxation. selling my properties would be a ruinous move letting go of my most valuable assets that are the only toe hold I have in this economy, and may threaten my ability to become a homeowner potentially ever again, depending on how this economic future plays out.
That’s without even getting into the balance sheet where you will find with rising rent costs, we would only be looking at a few hundred dollars of savings per month.
What now then?
10 minutes after I post this article, I’m going to go back to sending out my 900th through 920th tech job applications to AI bots that I won’t hear back on, work on building my pressure washing business i’ve begun investing in on credit that I don’t know how I will repay, and then maybe destroy my body and mind delivering doordash orders for a few hours.
I am keenly aware as someone with a past of clinical depression and anxiety that giving into a negative outlook or giving up hope will cause me to lose at anything before i’ve begun, so my primary task of each day is to force direct myself into a positive hopeful mindset. Some days I lose that battle.
This article isn’t for sympathy or to make me feel better by making excuses. I’m sharing my real life story of how I went from a highly valued technologist to basically nothing in the course of a year or two with the rise of AI.
I don’t think my story is unique, I think I am at the early side of the bell curve of the coming social and economic disaster tidal wave that is already underway and began with knowledge workers and creatives. It’s coming for basically everyone in due time, and we are already overdue for proposing any real solution in society to heading off the worst of these effects. The discussion of AI job replacement in the mainstream is still viewed as something coming in the vague future rather than something that’s already underway.
I’m only mad about losing my job to AI because I live in a society that says you don’t have a right to feed yourself and survive unless you exchange your labor for capital. Let the machines do the work, and with all this new value they are creating for us, let’s share it with everyone. send me a check every month for free, we already did it a couple times during covid. mortgages went unpaid, free money to every citizen was sent, and society went on basically as normal and did not fully collapse. Why are we still upholding the industrial-revolution era notion of what role work and money play in our lives? how many more people are headed towards the same experience i’ve been living here for the last year before we decide it’s time to rethink things?
Of all the things you have achieved in your life (and you have achieved a lot) your loyalty and love and support of your mother is the greatest achievement, you are in the top 1% of men, just for that.
"What will survive of us is love".
We appreciate you sharing your story. I’ve been banging this drum for 5-ish years, but no one believes or even has an inkling of what’s coming. I’ve worked on the creative side of marketing for 30 years, and I’ve seen what’s in store, particularly from Adobe. They’ll soon be displacing the same people who made them into what they are today. The marketers themselves are in trouble too, as AI can run numbers and scenarios so quickly.
AI is just getting traction now but this it’s about to accelerate like a dragster. Very sad.